Stephen Harper marks seven years as Prime Minister

OTTAWA (NEWS1130) – It was seven years ago today that Stephen Harper went from leader of the Opposition to Prime Minister of Canada.

But what has changed since Harper and his Tories recorded their first election victory?

News1130 put that and other questions to Maclean’s magazine columnist Paul Wells.

Throughout Harper’s term as Prime Minister, many have indicated the country seems more divided than when he took office. “It’s probably fair to say that the political tone is more acrimonious,” Wells admits.

“The Prime Minister is a guy who enjoys playing politics with his elbows up, and the tone that he brings to the conversation and the fact that he keeps winning is very upsetting to a lot of his opponents and the tendency has been to reply in kind,” he continues.

Wells says he’s asked around and there doesn’t seem to be any appetite within the Conservatives for a leader other than Harper. “There’s an understanding that he could leave when he wants.  My own guess is that he will run again in the next election and that he expects to win it.”

That said, Wells admits it’s never too early to talk about possible successors. “Oh, it’s always fun and we do it around town but for the moment it’s a parlour game and anyone who is caught organizing against Harper would have a very short political future ahead of them.”

He says it’s becoming very clear that Harper is in it for the long run.

“He wants to govern with very incremental change over a long period of time and the key to making those changes stick is to be Prime Minister for a long time. I think one majority is something he’s very proud of but he doesn’t think it’s enough.”

The NDP under Tom Mulcair and the possible resurgence of the Liberal Party are both possible threats to Harper and his political future as Prime Minister.

“The NDP is sagging a little bit in the polls from where they were say six or eight months ago but they’ve reached a new normal.  Hovering around 30 per cent in the national polls is higher than Jack Layton ever knew, except in the last few weeks of his political career.  Mulcair has managed to keep the NDP up there,” says Wells.

“Everyone is going to be watching the Liberal Party.  Finally in April, after waiting far too long, the Liberals will have a new leader and so far the effect Justin Trudeau is having on the polls is, he brings new life to the Liberal Party and sucks a lot of wind out of the sails of the NDP.  So, not only Harper but Mulcair is going to watching very closely to see, first of all, if Trudeau wins the leadership and secondly if the effect he’s had in the polls continues.”