Are the Harper Conservatives considering a spring election?

OTTAWA (NEWS1130) – With the price of oil collapsing, the budget postponed, and more terror threats against Canada this week, should we be getting ready for a federal election this spring?

The latest opinion polls put the Conservatives slightly ahead of Justin Trudeau’s Liberals. Political science professor and columnist Geoffrey Stevens says a big sign a spring election is pending is the Conservatives postponement of the budget.

“It’s partly their need to finance election promises which, with the decline in revenue, they’re not going to be able to do. They don’t even have the billions that they need at the moment to pay for promises which they made in the fall, in terms of income splitting and the child tax benefit.”

He says the Tory “tough on crime and terror” strategy is also a strength right now.

Stevens says the timing will never be better for Harper to call a snap election. “If they go through the summer, they’re likely to be dragged down. Economic problems will become greater. The fact they can’t keep their election promises will become more and more evident. And you never know with terrorism — things could get a whole lot worse.”

He predicts we’ll go to the polls in April or May. He believes a spring election would be fought on the basis of the challenges facing the nation rather than on the record of Harper’s decade in office.

 What do the opposition parties need to do to gain support if an early election does happen?

The parties need to take the government head-on on the things that are seen to be its strengths, says political analyst Dennis Pilon with York University.

One example is the economy.

“If you ask people directly, ‘How’s the economy working for you?’ you’re going to hear people say they feel insecure, they’re not so sure, they’re worried about their investments, they’re not sure about their retirement, they’re worried about their kids, they’re worried about the costs of things like education and housing and transportation,” says Pilon.

He adds the problem for the Conservatives is they’ve been the majority government, so it’s all on them, and blame can’t be shifted on to anyone else.

Pilon doesn’t agree with Steven’s view that the party is looking particularly good.

As for who Canadians will look at as the main party to go after the Conservatives, Pilon says Harper will try to foster a sense of division between the Liberals and the NDP.

“I think it’s a genuine difficulty for Canadians because as much as our friends in the press try to characterize the NDP and the Liberals as ‘the left,’ in fact the Liberals have much more in common with the Conservatives, particularly on financial issues.”

“So, I think it’s a very difficult choice, I think there are a lot of Canadians who would like, for instance, to stick with the New Democrats. But they’re worried that it’s going to split the vote. So, I think that’s the difficulty, that the NDP are now the official opposition, but the polls, for the last year and for a long time, have suggested that the Liberals have the advantage.”

Pilon thinks it will all shake out when the campaign starts, saying that is when we’ll start to see where support is through the polls.

“Is this just a lot of PR that we’re seeing around Trudeau?” he wonders. “So far, Trudeau hasn’t had a lot of great photo-ops. Once people start to hear him talk for longer than a sound byte, are they going to like what they hear? We could see some really interesting dynamic changes in the first weeks of the campaign, as people start to hear these different leaders. They’ve heard a lot of Harper, but not so much of the other two.”

Pilon adds to succeed, the opposition parties need to both go after the Conservatives and show what they are all about.