Where do Canadian cities sit in global ranking of terror risks?

VANCOUVER (NEWS1130) – The Harper government’s tough stance on terror will be a big part of the Conservative campaign heading into the coming election. But is it heavy-handed, considering where we actually sit in a new global ranking of the risks?

With volatile Baghdad at the top and many European cities higher up after the Charlie Hebdo incidents earlier this year, global risk assessment firm Verisk Maplecroft ranks Ottawa as Canada’s most at-risk city at 221st, followed by Montreal at 329th.

Security analyst Stefan Sabo-Walsh points to the two “lone-wolf” attacks last year and at least four foiled terror incidents since 2006 in Canada.

“But keep in mind, relatively, it is still a low risk,” he tells News1130 from Maplecroft’s London office. “It just highlights the fact that it is impossible to monitor every single radical in the country.”

But even with Canadian cities so low in the rankings, Toronto-based security consultant David Hyde says Ottawa is not being heavy handed in responding to security concerns.

“This analysis is a very useful tool — I don’t doubt for a second the veracity of their research — but it’s a little bit dangerous, comparatively, when you are looking at conflict zone like Iraq, Libya or Yemen where their is a preponderance of terrorism attacks right now and they are very unstable environments. When you compare that to Canada based on numbers, the risk levels are going to be far lower here,” he says.

“But we have had an increase in terrorism-related threat activity in this country. We’ve seen successful attacks and a number of individuals who have gone abroad and come back radicalized and who could potentially want to do harm in Canada. We have had plots intercepted.”

With an increase in terror-related activity, Hyde believes it is in Ottawa’s best interest to look at the “evolving threat” of radicalization and increase anti-terror activities and funding.

“Look at countries like Australia — not too dissimilar to Canada — and some European countries as well where there is a lot of emphasis on anti-terrorism measures, intelligence apparatus and anti-radicalization. Overall, I would say Canada is reacting fairly comparatively to other countries.”

Hyde argues comparing Ottawa, Montreal or even Vancouver — which is ranked 557th — to Baghdad is like comparing apples to oranges.

“When you look at Canada, even one or two successful attacks will be devastating here in terms of the perception and in terms of the reality.”