Political scientists weigh-in on NDP sliding in polls
Posted October 6, 2015 5:35 pm.
Last Updated October 6, 2015 5:53 pm.
This article is more than 5 years old.
VANCOUVER (NEWS 1130) – A month ago today, polls indicated the NDP was nosing in front of the Tories and Liberals in a tight three-way race, but since then that party’s support has plummeted.
One of the big reasons is declining support in Quebec, where Tom Mulcair’s defense of women wearing a niqab during the citizenship oath has proven unpopular, according to UBC political scientist Max Cameron.
But he says NDP support always seemed artificially high, and he expected there would be some erosion closer to election day.
“A lot of the NDP support is about getting rid of [Conservative leader Stephen] Harper, rather than getting the NDP elected,” says Cameron. “That again is a reason for some of the softness of their support.”
Given that anti-Harper rather than pro-NDP inclination of some who said they were voting for Mulcair’s party, Cameron says it’s not terribly surprising some voters are shifting their support to the Liberals instead.
Another reason for this shift, according to David Moscrop, another UBC political scientist, is that both the Liberals and Conservatives have performed well in recent weeks.
“I think it has at least as much to do with the success of the other two parties, as it does to do with any failure on the part of the NDP,” says Moscrop. “I would say this as well. The trend over time has been the Conservatives are up, the Liberals are up and the NDP is down, but there are two weeks left and a lot can happen.”
Moscrop says this could throw a wrench into the idea of strategic voting, noting some big national shifts could start being reflected at the local level.
