Canadian hurricane forecasters predict more normal storm season in Atlantic

HALIFAX – Canadian forecasters expect the Atlantic hurricane season will see more normal storm activity in 2016 as the calming effects of El Nino begin to weaken.

Bob Robichaud, a meteorologist with the Canadian Hurricane Centre, said 10 to 16 storms are predicted for the Atlantic Basin this year with four to eight expected to become hurricanes and two expected to become major in force.

Robichaud said that’s because the warmer waters caused by El Nino in the Pacific are beginning to cool.

“What we are actually looking at is a transition from an El Nino to a La Nina and typically when we have an El Nino we have fewer hurricanes and when we have La Nina we tend to have more hurricanes.”

Robichaud said the predictions suggest the trend will continue throughout the hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to the end of November.

He said the slightly higher number of storms expected would be due to lower wind shear conditions produced by the La Nina effect on the Atlantic.

Wind shear affects wind speed and direction, and when it’s increased over the Atlantic there tend to be fewer hurricanes.

Robichaud said a normal hurricane season has an average of 12 storms and this year’s forecast signals a return to form.

“We expect a little bit more activity than we saw last year and that would bring us to near normal,” he said. “When we say near normal we are talking about a range of storms around that average of 12.”

Last year the centre predicted 11 tropical storms and 11 developed in the Atlantic with four making it to hurricane status. Robichaud said four of those storms made it into Canadian waters, although there were no major effects felt in Atlantic Canada.

The most severe storm in 2015 was Joaquin which hit in early October and is credited with helping to sink the cargo ship El Faro, killing 33 people, while causing severe flooding in North Carolina. The same storm only resulted in ocean swells along the coast of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland and Labrador.

Robichaud repeated the centre’s customary warning for people to take precautions for severe storms regardless of the forecast, because of the unpredictability of weather patterns.

As an example, he said in 1992 there were only six named storms – but one was Hurricane Andrew, which at the time was the most destructive in U.S. history.

“There is a significant risk in any hurricane season,” said Robichaud.

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