Study warns of significant Lower Mainland flood risk

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VANCOUVER (NEWS 1130) – The Fraser Basin Council suggests the Lower Mainland is at a growing risk of what it calls a ‘large-magnitude flood,’ from coastal water or by way of the Fraser River. The studies were done on behalf of 43 government and private sector partners.

The council is estimating if a major coastal storm surge or Fraser River flood happened today, it could cause up to $20-billion in damage. They also did some modeling to see what would happen in 2100 and found that figure could jump to over $30-billion, . More frequent and severe flooding is expected linked to rising sea levels and other effects of climate change.

Fraser Basin Council Senior Program Manager Steve Litke says damage in either scenario would be widespread. “The kinds of impacts that we would expect from either a large Fraser River flood or a large coastal storm surge flood would be certainly many billions, if not tens of billions of dollars of damages to buildings, to infrastructure. There would be disruption of shipping and trade. Certainly with critical infrastructure damage and destruction, pretty much everyone in the region would be affected one way or another.”

For the purposes of modeling, Litke says the council assumed all of the dikes in the region would fail in this situation. It turns out the assumption isn’t far from the truth. “That actually verified that in very few cases, the dikes would hold. That assumption that the dikes would fail is reasonable.”

This Phase 1 report gives us a picture of where we are now. Phase 2 involves working on a way to make sure this disastrous scenario doesn’t play out. The province has put forward one million dollars to start work on the action plan, which should be finished in 2018.

 

  • Present-day Lower Mainland flood scenarios would result in losses estimated at:
    • $19.3 billion (coastal flood)
    • $22.9 billion (Fraser River).
  • Year 2100 Lower Mainland flood scenarios would result in losses estimated at:
    • $24.7 billion (coastal flood)
    • $32.7 billion (Fraser River flood).

 

“We now have a crisper picture of the evolving flood risk faced by the Lower Mainland and the chilling economic cost of inaction,” says Colin Hansen, chair of the council. “It’s time to kick into high gear, have all partners determine the best flood protection for the region, and roll out an action plan.”

The council says that Lower Mainland flood risks are projected to worsen over the next 85 years, both in terms of flood frequency and size, because of sea level rise and other projected impacts of climate change.

“There’s a pressing need for climate change adaptation in how we plan communities, and the diking system is no exception.” says Hansen. “We have to approach flood protection to address the new reality.” In recent consultations by the Fraser Basin Council, BC local governments have stressed the importance of a multi-year funding program to support flood management, including rehabilitation of the region’s dikes.

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