105th Grey Cup: Expert picks and predictions

Today the Calgary Stampeders will appear in the Grey Cup for the fourth time in the last six years. Their opponent? The Toronto Argonauts, who haven’t appeared in a Grey Cup since 2012… when they beat the Stampeders.

But how will the 105th Grey Cup play out? Our expert CFL panel has stepped up with picks on not only the champion, but also the major award winners.

The panel includes BC Lions quarterback and 2011 Grey Cup most valuable player Travis Lulay, Sportsnet reporter Arash Madani, columnist Mark Spector and staff writers Donnovan Bennett and Mike Johnston.

MOST VALUABLE PLAYER

LULAY: Bo Levi Mitchell. The Stamps will be so balanced on offence that no individual performance will jump out on the stat sheets. That means Mitchell is efficient in his decision making and finishes with very solid numbers. Also, he was the clear choice for MOP last year and the championship game didn’t go his way. This year, he’s been more quiet in terms of numbers. He’s due for a big performance. Bo Levi wins his second Grey Cup MVP award in four years.

MADANI: James Wilder Jr. The turnaround of the Argos’ season began in September once the league’s top rookie became one of its top weapons. Using Wilder as a receiver in the flat — and even further on wheel routes, like the Argos did on the critical third-and-5 in the East final — will test the Stamps’ ability to be assignment-and-gap sound, and open up the run game.

SPECTOR: Roy Finch. Stamps head coach Dave Dickenson alluded to making a higher priority of Finch after the West final when he said: “We don’t use Roy as much in the regular season because he’s a little guy and he’s so valuable. We decided we would do… 30 or 40 percent for Roy, and the rest for (Messam).” In this game, the Argos’ top-rated run defence will be baited with Jerome Messam, then switched with swing passes and delays to Finch. He’ll also break one on special teams.

BENNETT: James Wilder Jr. This game will be pretty binary. If Wilder is able to rush for 100 yards, Toronto wins. If he doesn’t they lose. The recipe for success for Toronto is to slow down the Stampeders’ pass rush with lots of draws and screens to their tailback. Toronto is 6-2 since Wilder was made the focal point of the Toronto offence. With his former NFLer father James Wilder in the stands, Jr. has a monster day.

JOHNSTON: Over the final six games of the regular season James Wilder Jr. racked up a whopping 700 rushing yards, 441 receiving yards and five touchdowns to help the Argos clinch first in the East. The Florida State product is capable of coming up with a clutch play when his team needs one, just like we saw in the waning seconds of the East final.

MOST VALUABLE CANADIAN

LULAY: Jerome Messam. I think Messam will find the end zone twice, and those scores give him the MVC nod. Calgary will have to be balanced on offence and Toronto is good against the run, so he may not have huge numbers in this game. But his touches will be critical.

MADANI: Jermaine Gabriel. Have to think Calgary’s game plan will be looking to find their backs — Messam and Finch — in space. That’ll put them one on one against the veteran Canadian defensive back, who primarily plays safety. While Gabriel likes to cheat downhill a little bit, and it has made him vulnerable, it’s in these scenarios where he’s capable of making a critical play. Turnovers will be the difference maker in this game and Gabriel forcing them will make him the top Canadian.

SPECTOR: Rene Paredes. The Stampeders kicker will be the beneficiary of a Calgary offence that will neutralize Toronto QB Ricky Ray by keeping him off the field. On a cool Grey Cup day, drives will end on the toe of a kicker, and Paredes is the man for the job, the first Caracas native to be named Most Valuable Canadian.

BENNETT: Lirim Hajrullahu. He’ll be more valuable as a directional punter than he will a place kicker on Sunday. Having said that, the Stampeders’ bend-but-don’t-break defence will mean that Hajrullahu will be called upon often to finish drives with points. In honour of his cousin, Ilir Balaj, who passed away in the days leading up to the game, Lirim has a big game Sunday.

JOHNSTON: Jerome Messam is the clear frontrunner for this award and it’ll be tough for the Argos to limit his output, but based on how well Toronto’s defensive line has played lately I’ll go against the grain and say they will slow him down. Anthony Coombs is an X-factor for the Argos and my Magic 8-Ball is saying the Winnipeg native will come up with a big touchdown for the double blue.

GREY CUP CHAMPION

LULAY: Calgary Stampeders. I (incorrectly) picked Calgary last year, and I’m picking them again this year. Why? Calgary’s defence has held the potent Toronto attack in check better than any defence in the league. Calgary seems focused and looks like a team on a mission to not underperform in the big game like they did a year ago. Ricky Ray and the Argos are playing good football and Mark Trestman will have his team ready, but when the Stamps play well, they are the best team in the CFL. Calgary 32, Toronto 20.

MADANI: Toronto Argonauts. This team was 4-6 at the end of August and they have turned it around as they get healthy at the right time. Ricky Ray has gone into the time machine and is playing at a high level. If things go wrong early for the Stampeders, it may unravel for them, opening the door for a 27–23 Argos win.

 

SPECTOR: Calgary Stampeders. Too many weapons on offence, too deep defensively, and special teams that can sway a football game. Plus, too many players in red and black who came here last year and fell short. It won’t happen again against a .500 Argos team that went 3-7 against the West this season. Calgary 33, Toronto 17.

BENNETT: Toronto Argonauts. The Stampeders had lost three straight games heading in to the post-season before winning in the West final. The Argos are 6-2 since Labour Day. Toronto is playing their best football at the right time thanks to the late-season additions of Mitchell White to the defence and James Wilder Jr. to the offence. Despite the fact Calgary has been the team of the decade, they have only one Grey Cup win to show for it. In Calgary’s previous 19 seasons finishing with the CFL’s best record, they have gone on to win the Grey Cup only six times. Argos 31, Stampeders 25.

JOHNSTON: Toronto Argonauts. The Argos have won their last five trips to the Grey Cup and haven’t lost the big game since 1987. On paper and throughout the regular season the Stampeders have been the better team, but it didn’t matter last year and won’t this year. The Argos are healthy, peaking at the right time, will chip away at Calgary with long drives and eventually wear them down. Ricky Ray will be able to walk into the sunset and retire a champion just like Henry Burris did at the expense of the Stamps last year. Toronto 33, Calgary 31.