Status quo after federal byelections

OTTAWA (NEWS1130) – At first glance, the balance of power remains the same in Ottawa after four federal byelections. But if you scratch beneath the surface, Justin Trudeau and the Liberals might have reason to be hopeful.

The Conservatives held on to two long-time Tory bastions in Manitoba, while the Liberals retained two strongholds in Toronto and Montreal. However, the Liberals increased their share of votes in each riding as the NDP failed to gain any ground.

Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau said it is the result of the party turning away from the legacy of Jack Layton.

“The NDP is no longer the hopeful optimistic party of Jack Layton. It is the negative, divisive party of Thomas Mulcair,” said Trudeau after the Liberals retained their grip on Montreal’s Bourassa riding and in Toronto Centre.

York University political science professor Dennis Pilon says it was a good night for the Liberal Party of Canada and its rebranding efforts around their leader, but calls Trudeau’s comments nonsense.

“If anything, Thomas Mulcair’s party is a calmer, gentler, less critical party than Jack Layton’s,” he tells News1130.

“Jack came out of a kind of city, street-fighting Leftism that could convey his ideas in a very common sense way. Mulcair is much more a professional politician and he’s been a very effective parliamentarian. Unfortunately, we don’t seem to judge the actions of our politicians by their performance in Parliament anymore. It appears the branding efforts around Justin Trudeau have worked their magic.”

Pilon points out the New Democrats could still come back in the 2015 federal election but these were byelections they really needed to win to continue the “Orange Crush” spearheaded by the late Jack Layton.

“It would have set the tone of what was to come in the next election — to not win these ridings has got to be pretty tough news for the New Democrats this morning. Especially Toronto Centre; that’s got New Democrat written all over it. If they can’t win Toronto Centre, it’s not looking good for them in the next election to hang on as the Official Opposition.”

In Manitoba, the Conservatives lost votes to the Liberals but still won in the riding of Provencher. However, they barely hung on to what had been one of the safest seats in the country — the largely rural riding of  Brandon-Souris, which has sent only Tories to Ottawa for the last 50 years except for one term in the 1990s. Liberal candidate Rolf Dinsdale called the 400 vote margin a “shot across the bow” for the Harper Conservatives.

“That’s what an opposition party always wants to do, take a seat away from the government — even one they won’t keep — and to do it in a byelection sends a strong message,” says Pilon. “They didn’t pull it off last night, but they came very close. You can bet the Conservatives are worried about that.”