UBC ‘prediction market’ forecasts outcome of next provincial election
Posted March 15, 2017 1:41 pm.
Last Updated March 15, 2017 1:44 pm.
This article is more than 5 years old.
VANCOUVER (NEWS 1130) – For many, the outcome of the BC provincial election may already be a no-brainer, but the UBC Sauder School of Business is again making the race financially interesting.
“You can always buy and sell at any time and you can even cash out of the market before the election is held.”
Associate Professor Werner Antweiler, who developed this stock market for predicting winners and losers several years ago, says this is usually more reliable than traditional polls which incorrectly predicted an NDP win in 2013.
“All the polls were kind of off and even, towards the end, our traders were noticing there’s maybe a change in sentiment and we saw the numbers change during the last two days, but it was not enough to actually predict that the BC Liberals actually would win that election…. Polls basically ask people about opinions over the last few days and they have to be aggregated and weighted, they still have people who are undecided, so if you ask people who you think is going to win the election, that’s a different question, as opposed to who are you going to vote for.”
He adds a lot can change before May 9th, but right now, it looks like the Green Party may gain some seats and could end up holding the balance of power in Victoria.
“Often, we find people don’t make up their minds until very close to the election.”
Investors must be at least 19 years old to make a minimum 25-dollar bid with a thousand dollar limit.
Buying and selling is allowed until polls close May 9th.
